Is the US in trouble?

Ibn Khaldun watched the Islamic golden age unravel with the same clinical precision Dalio brings to America today. The Arabs produced the greatest social diagnostician in history — and then proceeded to ignore him entirely. The Americans, characteristically, published theirs on YouTube.

What if Dalio is correct - what if the US is in fact, at the end of its great cycle? That indicates interesting times are upon us, as the Chinese would curse, with millenia of experience.

Lets watch the United States from the point of view of the Chinese leadership. You have recently discovered that you were almost completely domesticated as a country by other countries both near and far. But even more recently, you appear to have found yourself again, and are discovering that your manufacturing capabilities actually beats that of the Americans. The Americans present an interesting set of cards to you. They never tried to domesticate you. In fact, they helped liberate you from a country that did. They stopped the USSR from unleashing a nuclear war upon you. They even seeded you with the manufacturing capacity and the institutions that helped them succeed in the first place. But yet, they persist in holding a knife at your back, in the form of Taiwan. They openly seek to topple the centralized regime that holds the country together - under the guise of spreading freedoms.

But you are cautious - the Americans have proven themselves leaders in warfare. They demonstrated worrying precision in how they transplanted Maduro away from his country. They embarrassed themselves in Afghanistan and Iraq, but their model of decentralized warfare supported by superior intelligence and reliable supply lines remains world beating - and plus, they have a formidable Navy. Their capitalist institutions produce technologies that have undeniably advanced all of civilization. History tells you to be wise when dealing with a Golden Goose. The Americans continue to hold a power of the heart of most individuals in the world - whoever tried to sneak into China! (With the exception of the North Koreans).

But the Americans also show signs of implosion. The great snake appears to have caught its own tail. The majority of the population is beginning to lose faith in their system. Wealth (and the lack of it) appears to be a driving factor. They have been weakening themselves continuously since 2001. Technology has enabled a leapfrog in military capabilities - behemoth class ships are vulnerable to drone swarms.

Perhaps, thinks the Chinese, this is an opportunity that they cannot afford to miss. All they need to do is let the snake eat itself, and perhaps help it along the way. And then what?

AI presents a unique opportunity to strengthen the walls of centralized autocracy. Xi Jinping would find himself wielding a sword of world-altering capability. The American fearmongers warn of the sword consuming the host, but the best Chinese scientists have demonstrated how they would control for this.

A counter to Dalio is that the Americans, by sheer ability to recognize the conditions of their downfall, lay the foundations for its re-emergence. It is inevitable that the Americans form a counter to the great Chinese Sword - AI formed with equal rights to participation. A swarm of individual super-intelligences, collecting and synthesizing new data at a much faster pace than anything the Sword can manage.

As an Indian, I would caution the Chinese on their move against the United States - they have the Israelis on their side - proven, formidable allies. There may even be value in silently easing the tail out of the snake’s mouth. A potential for a partnership that helps humanity break life out of this egg shaped planet.

The egg, after all, was never meant to be a home.